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(AsiaGameHub) – As anticipated, Brazil has become Latin America’s largest betting and gaming market following regulation in January 2025. However, this leading status has come with intense widespread political scrutiny.
In a guest contribution for iGaming Expert, SBC News Editor Ted Orme-Claye provides a full overview of the political landscape facing Brazil’s still young gaming sector – and questions whether the Brazilian government can keep its policy priorities aligned…
After just 15 months of operation, is Brazil’s experiment with fully regulated online betting already on the brink of failure? A recent shift in stance from the central government in Brasilia regarding the sector suggests it may soon be.
President Lula da Silva appears to be preparing a major legislative push targeting online gambling for May 2026. While the plans do not amount to a full, outright ban, they make clear that the president and his Workers Party (PT) are taking decisive action.
The story of the new plans was first broken by Lauro Jardim, a highly respected Brazilian political journalist, in a piece for Rio de Janeiro newspaper O Globo. The government’s core motivation for the changes is to reduce overall levels of indebtedness among Brazilian citizens.
Lula Grows Impatient With ‘Bets’
Despite holding personal reservations about the sector, President Lula signed off on the creation of the legal betting market under the Bets Law (PL 2626/2023) in late 2024.
On 1 January 2025, the domestic regulated market, known locally as ‘Bets’, launched with 63 initial license holders, overseen by the Secretariat of Bets and Prizes (SPA), a department under the Ministry of Finance. Today, there are more than 83 license holders running a combined total of 197 different betting brands across the country.
The legal market has been a success from a tax revenue perspective, generating R$9.95bn (£1.47bn) in tax intake from 2025 alone. Even so, the government has grown increasingly concerned about the social impacts of the sector, with some ministers going as far as to argue the market should never have been allowed to launch.
These concerns led to new government policies such as the ban on betting for recipients of Bolsa Família and the Continuous Benefit Payment (BPC) welfare programs, implemented in spring 2025. This move excluded roughly 60 million people from accessing the legal betting market.
A year later, the government still remains focused on the link between betting and household debt, with an estimated 80 million Brazilians currently carrying some form of debt. However, SBC Noticias Brasil reports that SPA data shows wagering accounts for only 0.46% of total household income across the nation.
Under the government’s latest proposals, which were reportedly developed by the Ministries of Finance, Planning and Justice under the supervision of the president’s Chief of Staff, people enrolled in the government’s debt financing program will be banned from placing bets.
The government is also currently reviewing betting advertising and promotion rules. Lula’s administration wants to ensure betting companies cannot encourage “compulsion and addiction” through their marketing, a practice the government claims many legal operators have actively engaged in.
Tightening the Screws on Gambling
As noted earlier, Lula has never been strongly supportive of the gambling sector, but he has made his opposition much clearer over the past several months. On one occasion, he stated the sector must either face much stricter new restrictions, or be banned entirely.
“It is not possible to allow this unbridled gambling to continue in this country,” the President said. “I have been discussing this issue for 15 days… if it causes the harm we believe it causes, why not end betting entirely? Or else regulate the sector so there are far fewer operators in Brazil, if it serves any real purpose.”
The president faces a general election in October 2026, and has prioritized economic growth and debt reduction as his core policy goals. A key part of this strategy has focused on raising new taxes from the ‘three Bs’: banking, billionaires, and betting.
After months of negotiations in the halls of Congress, the government finally secured approval for steady tax increases on betting in December last year. The new framework will raise the tax on gross gaming revenues (GGR) from the current 12% rate to 15% in 2027, and 18% in 2028.
This change has been followed by consistent public messaging around gambling’s risks to both public health and personal finances, with a particular focus on advertising restrictions. Alexandre Padilha, Brazil’s Health Secretary, has drawn comparisons between gambling and cigarette smoking.
“For me today, gambling addiction is a public health problem on the same scale as cigarette addiction,” he said. “It is necessary to implement more restrictive rules for betting advertising, just as we did for cigarettes.”
However, for all the talk of new restrictions, the government has not yet moved forward with an outright ban on betting – at least for now. While a ban bill, PL-1808/2026, has been introduced to Congress by PT Deputy Pedro Uczai, the proposal has not received official endorsement from Lula or any senior members of his cabinet.
The president is currently facing a clear dilemma. On one hand, he wants to tax gambling to help fund his economic policy agenda, but on the other he wants to reduce the sector’s social visibility and cut its perceived contribution to rising debt. The open question remains: can these two goals actually be balanced?
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